FDI angle:

• Higher population growth rates in countries indicate a growing consumer base and a potentially larger, younger workforce.
• It can make these countries more attractive to companies seeking to tap into their growing markets and working age populations.
• Why does this matter? Countries with higher expected population growth rates could benefit from a ‘demographic dividend’.

The global population is projected to grow from 8.16bn people today to more than 9.6bn people in 2050 due to high fertility rates and youthful populations in large developing countries, according to the latest revision of the UN’s population estimates released on July 11.

The number of people within a country is determined by fertility, mortality and migration rates, and increases when there are more births than deaths. Countries with large numbers of young people usually experience sustained population growth even when birth rates fall because their youthful population will continue to grow up and have children. Inward migration can also significantly boost a country’s population and higher life expectancies at birth can contribute to population growth or mitigate population decline.

Over the next three decades, the UN expects 126 out of 237 countries and areas it assesses to experience population growth, including some of the world’s most populous countries like India, Indonesia, Nigeria and the US. The total number of people across these 126 countries is expected to grow by 38% between now and 2054, while populations in nine countries will double over this time frame. 

Calculations by fDi of the change between 2024 and 2050 in absolute population numbers and population growth rates reveals the economies with significant changes in their demographics in the coming decades. The following analysis and charts compare UN population estimates on July 1 in each year to reflect the most up-to-date figures for 2024.

The country with the greatest expected jump in population numbers is India, the world’s most populous country, where the UN expects there to be 228m more people in 2050 compared with today. The population of India is expected to peak at about 1.7bn in the early 2060s. 

Other large developing countries are expected to be those with the greatest jump in population numbers, including Nigeria (+126m), Pakistan (+120m) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (+108m). The country forecast to have the greatest decline in its population numbers by 2050 is Romania (-2.99m), followed by Spain (-2.98m), where there are currently “ultra-low” fertility rates, according to the UN.

By comparison, population growth rates between 2024 and 2050 paints a slightly different picture. The first placed country was the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the population is forecast to almost double (+99.7%) from 109.2m people today to 218.2m in 2050. 

The 10 countries with the highest population growth rates over the period are all located in Africa, with the Central African Republic (+99.2%) in a close second the DRC, followed by the small French overseas department Mayotte (+97.7%), Angola (+96.1%) and Somalia (+95.7%). 

Island territories with already small population sizes are expected to see the sharpest rate of decline in their populations over the period. In the Marshall Islands, the population is expected to decline by almost a third from 37,548 to 25,194 people between now and 2050. A similar decline is expected in the Cook Islands, followed by the French part of Saint Martin (-28.1%), Saint Pierre and Miquelon (-24.3%) and Saint Helena (-24.2%).

By 2050, a number of countries in Europe are also expected to experience a sharp decline in their populations, including Moldova (-22.5%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (-22.4%), Lithuania (-21%) and Bulgaria (-20.1%).

The working age population (between 20 and 64 years) is expected to grow more rapidly than the total population in about 100 countries or areas between now and 2054, according to the UN. These locations could benefit from a ‘demographic dividend’, where there is an opportunity for higher economic growth because a decline in fertility rates leads to a higher concentration of the population to be in the labour force.

“To capitalise on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency,” according to the UN’s department of economic and social affairs.

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